Politics and Elections Blog
Trends, tools and news from the Google Politics & Elections team
Welcome to the 2016 Election Trend Tracker
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Welcome to Google's 2016
Trend Tracker
! Brought to you by the Google News Lab, these weekly newsletters will uncover the latest trends and insights into the 2016 Election.
2016 Elections: Weekly Trends Tracker
6/10/2015 - 6/16/2015
***
2016 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES
•
Democrats: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee
•
Republicans: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Donald Trump
***
KEY INSIGHTS THIS WEEK
Following recent reports on Marco Rubio’s finances, top questions on Marco Rubio were: “How many houses does Marco Rubio own?” and “What kind of boat does Marco Rubio have?”
Lindsey Graham was the only candidate where a question on his stance on gay marriage showed up: “Where does Lindsey Graham stand on gay marriage?”
With the third anniversary of President Obama’s Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) this week, the most searched topic related to the 2016 elections was immigration.
WHO WAS THE MOST SEARCHED DEMOCRAT FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O’Malley
Lincoln Chafee
WHO WAS THE MOST SEARCHED REPUBLICAN FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
Lindsey Graham
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
George Pataki
WHO WAS THE MOST SEARCHED CANDIDATE BY STATE FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
WHAT ARE THE TOP QUESTIONS FOR EACH CANDIDATE FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
Top Related Questions: Hillary Clinton
How old is Hillary Clinton?
Is Hillary Clinton a Democrat?
Will Hillary Clinton be elected?
What time is Hillary Clinton speaking?
How tall is Hillary Clinton?
What does Hillary Clinton plan to do as President?
Is Hillary Clinton running for office in 2016?
Who is running against Hillary Clinton?
Where did Hillary Clinton go to college?
Who is Hillary Clinton?
Top Related Questions: Bernie Sanders
How old is Bernie Sanders?
Who is Bernie Sanders?
Is Bernie Sanders Jewish?
Is Bernie Sanders a Democrat?
Is Bernie Sanders running?
Is Bernie Sanders a Socialist?
Will Bernie Sanders win?
What does Bernie Sanders stand for?
How is Bernie Sanders doing?
Is Bernie Sanders married?
Top Related Questions: Martin O’Malley
Who is Martin O’Malley?
Where does Martin O’Malley live?
Is Martin O’Malley a Democrat?
How old is Martin O’Malley?
Where was Martin O’Malley born?
How tall is Martin O’Malley?
Why should Martin O’Malley not be President?
Why is Martin O’Malley running for President?
Why should Martin O’Malley be President?
How many taxes did Martin O’Malley add to Maryland?
Top Related Questions: Ben Carson
Who is Ben Carson?
How old is Ben Carson?
Is Ben Carson running for President?
Is Ben Carson a Democrat?
Where is Ben Carson from?
What does Ben Carson stand for?
Where does Ben Carson live?
How tall is Ben Carson?
What religion is Ben Carson?
How is Ben Carson doing in the polls?
Top Related Questions: Ted Cruz
Where was Ted Cruz born?
Who is Ted Cruz?
How can Ted Cruz run?
Is Ted Cruz Canadian?
Where is Ted Cruz from?
How tall is Ted Cruz?
How old is Ted Cruz?
Where does Ted Cruz live?
Is Ted Cruz Hispanic?
Is Ted Cruz running for President?
How did Ted Cruz vote on the trade bill?
Top Related Questions: Carly Fiorina
How old is Carly Fiorina?
Who is Carly Fiorina?
Is Carly Fiorina married?
Where does Carly Fiorina live?
How tall is Carly Fiorina?
Is Carly Fiorina a Democrat?
Where did Carly Fiorina go to college?
Where is Carly Fiorina from?
Is Carly Fiorina Jewish?
What is Carly Fiorina’s net worth?
Is Carly Fiorina pro life
Top Related Questions: Mike Huckabee
Who is Mike Huckabee?
How old is Mike Huckabee?
Is Huckabee running for President?
Is Mike Huckabee Republican?
Where is Mike Huckabee from?
Where does Mike Huckabee live?
How tall is Mike Huckabee?
What gifts do I receive for endorsing Mike Huckabee?
Where does Mike Huckabee go to church?
Who is touring with Mike Huckabee?
Top Related Questions: Rand Paul
How tall is Rand Paul?
Who is Rand Paul?
How old is Rand Paul?
Is Rand Paul Ron Paul’s son?
Is Rand Paul running?
What does Rand Paul want?
How did Rand Paul vote on TPP?
What kind of doctor is Senator Rand Paul?
Where is Rand Paul from?
How is Rand Paul doing in the polls?
Top Related Questions: Marco Rubio
How old is Marco Rubio?
Who is Marco Rubio?
How tall is Marco Rubio?
Where was Marco Rubio born?
Is Marco Rubio running for President?
Where does Marco Rubio live now?
Is Marco Rubio Republican?
How many houses does Marco Rubio own?
Where did Marco Rubio go to college?
What is Marco Rubio’s net worth?
What kind of boat does Marco Rubio have?
Top Related Questions: Jeb Bush
How old is Jeb Bush?
Who is Jeb Bush?
What is Jeb Bush’s full name?
Is Jeb Bush related to George Bush?
How tall is Jeb Bush?
How is Jeb Bush related to George Bush?
Is Jeb Bush Catholic?
Who is Jeb Bush married to?
What does Jeb stand for?
Is Jeb Bush a Democrat?
Top Related Questions: Scott Walker
Is Scott Walker running for President?
Who is Scott Walker?
How old is Scott Walker?
How tall is Scott Walker?
When will Scott Walker announce?
Will Scott Walker become President?
Where is Scott Walker from?
Where was Scott Walker born?
Why did Scott Walker leave Marquette?
Top Related Questions: Chris Christie
Is Chris Christie going to run for President?
Is Chris Christie Republican?
How much does Chris Christie weigh?
How much weight has Chris Christie lost?
Who is Chris Christie?
How old is Chris Christie?
When is Chris Christie leaving office?
What does Chris Christie do?
Where does Chris Christie live?
How tall is Chris Christie?
Top Related Questions: Rick Santorum
Who is Rick Santorum?
How old is Rick Santorum?
What religion is Rick Santorum?
Is Rick Santorum running for President in 2016?
Where is Rick Santorum from?
What party is Rick Santorum?
Where does Rick Santorum live?
What will Rick Santorum do for America?
Where is Rick Santorum now?
Where was Rick Santorum born?
Top Related Questions: Lindsey Graham
Is Lindsey Graham married?
How tall is Lindsey Graham?
Why isn’t Lindsey Graham married?
How old is Lindsey Graham?
Who is Lindsey Graham?
Has Senator Lindsey Graham never been married?
Is Lindsey Graham divorced?
Where does Lindsey Graham stand on gay marriage?
Is Lindsey Graham going to run for President?
Who has Lindsey Graham dated?
Top Related Questions: George Pataki
How old is George Pataki?
How tall is George Pataki?
Who is George Pataki?
Is George Pataki still running for President?
How is Governor Pataki’s son-in-law doing?
Is George Pataki Jewish?
Where does George Pataki live?
When did George Pataki enter the Presidential race?
How do you pronounce George Pataki?
Is George Pataki a Democrat?
Top Related Questions: Rick Perry
How old is Rick Perry?
Is Rick Perry running in 2016?
How tall is Rick Perry?
Who is Rick Perry?
Where did Rick Perry go to college?
When did Rick Perry announce his candidacy for President?
Is Rick Perry still governor?
Where does Rick Perry live?
Where was Rick Perry born?
Who was the lieutenant governor for Rick Perry?
Top Related Questions: Lincoln Chafee
Who is Lincoln Chafee?
How old is Lincoln Chafee?
Is Lincoln Chafee married?
What was Larry Wilmore’s question to Lincoln Chafee?
What is Lincoln Chafee’s net worth?
Is Lincoln Chafee a Democrat?
What is Lincoln Chafee’s slogan?
Who is Lincoln Chafee’s father?
When did Chafee announce?
Where is Lincoln Chafee from?
Top Related Questions: Donald Trump
Is Donald Trump running for President in 2016?
Is Donald Trump a Republican?
How old is Donald Trump?
How much is Donald Trump worth?
Who is Donald Trump?
How many times has Donald Trump run for President?
How did Donald Trump make his money?
How many times has Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy?
Is Donald Trump married?
Is Donald Trump a Christian?
MOST SEARCHED POLICY ISSUES RELATED TO THE 2016 ELECTIONS FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
Immigration
Same-Sex Marriage
Education
Taxes
Economy
Health Care
Foreign Policy
Climate Change
Environment
Housing
TOP RELATED QUESTIONS ON IMMIGRATION FROM 6/10/2015 TO 6/16/2015?
What is immigration reform?
How many immigrants are in the US?
Why did immigrants come to America?
What is immigration?
What is the difference between immigration and emigration?
How do I check my immigration petition status?
What is DACA immigration?
Why is immigration good?
What is an immigrant visa?
How do I check immigration status?
TRENDS FROM GOOGLE CONSUMER SURVEYS.
Google Consumer Surveys
is a market research tool that allows users to create online surveys to get quick and accurate data from a representative sample. Survey questions are served to respondents online and through a mobile app in exchange for access to premium content and Google Play credit. We Google Consumer Surveys to look at voting intentions for the US presidential election and attitudes on key issues. These were all the questions asked:
Do you intend to vote in the 2016 Presidential election?
Which party's candidate do you intend to vote for?
How important is health care in deciding your vote?
How important is the economy in deciding your vote?
How important is wealth inequality in deciding your vote?
How important is the Federal budget deficit in deciding your vote?
How important is immigration/illegal immigration in deciding your vote?
How important are race relations in deciding your vote?
How important is the gender of the candidate in deciding your vote?
How important is the ethnicity of the candidate in deciding your vote?
Executive Results Overview (and changes from previous week):
1) Just half of those who responded say they intend to vote - 58.5% (+1.5%)
17%, have already decided they will not vote in 2016 (-1%).
46.7% will decided who to vote for when the the candidates are announced (-1.3%)
2) The top issue is the economy, followed by healthcare (unchanged) and the federal budget deficit (+) tied for second. This is the order:
Economy (unchanged)
Healthcare (unchanged) and federal budget deficit (+)
Immigration/Illegal Immigration (+)
Wealth Inequality (-)
Race Relations (+)
3) This is the vote split of those who will vote for a party:
Dem: 40.9% (-1.8%)
Rep: 47.3% (+4.8%)
Other: 4.1% (+1.1%)
Independent: 7.7% (-4.3%)
Top 5 insights from Google Consumer Surveys this week:
Women were more concerned about the gender of a political candidate than men were concerned.
65+ year olds were more concerned about immigration/illegal immigration than any other age group.
The US South picked Republican as the party they intended to vote for more than the US Midwest picked Republican.
65+ year olds were more concerned about the ethnicity of a political candidate than any other age group.
The two highest income brackets concerned with race relations were $0-$24,999 and $75,000-$99,999, respectively.
Understanding America's "Interested Bystander:" A Complicated Relationship with Civic Duty
Wednesday, June 3, 2015
What motivates Americans to do things that are civic?
Among those who are interested in improving democracy, the question of how to engage the unengaged has been a persistent challenge. We and many others have observed that too many Americans feel disconnected from public policy and legislative decision-making in the United States. While a portion of Americans are engaged in community and social contexts as volunteers, it seems that most people are not participating in a politically-defined notion of civic life in a broad-scale way.
In the past year, we decided to take a deeper look at the people that we and many others across the civic tech ecosystem are seeking to engage more robustly in civic life. Might we be able to identify people in the U.S. who seem to be aware of the world around them but are not actively deliberating on opinions or taking action on issues, and then uncover something meaningful about their attitudes as a group?
Referring to these people as “Interested Bystanders,” we hypothesized that such a person is an individual, in a Western democratic context, who is aware of political or community issues around her, but not active in addressing them. She knows what civic challenges exist and would like to complain/act/improve the situation but she has not yet found the motivation or drive to do something about those challenges. “Even if I do something, will anything actually change?” is a question that she considers often. These are individuals from a broad spectrum of backgrounds, the majority of whom are technologically connected, and might exhibit some past participation in any variety of civic interactions.
Not finding a modern body of work that answered our questions, we conducted a combination of in-person interviews and contextual observations from February to October of 2014, with 101 qualitative participants across six locations in the United States. In addition, we fielded a quantitative survey to 2,058 survey respondents, representative of the U.S. population.
As applied research, this work held two important goals: 1) To inform the design of civic-related products and services at Google, and 2) To support the broader civic tech ecosystem of individuals and institutions working hard to make our civic life more inclusive and meaningful. As with any networked response to a grand challenge, this community is increasingly taking care to deeply understand the very people it aims to engage. We hope that by releasing this research, we can give support to that instinct and collaborate with others toward a more user-driven civic product development approach across the ecosystem.
A note about the geographic focus of this research: Our work is grounded in the premise that it is important for people to engage better civically, wherever they live. However, given the resources available for this research, we opted to focus deeply on one country (the United States) instead of investigating many places more shallowly. In describing our process and methodology, we hope to encourage researchers in other places to complete similar studies of this topic for comparison.
Today, we are excited to share our full qualitative and quantitative findings.
View the full findings report here.
View the deck of key takeaways here
.
Top insights
According to our research, almost half of the United States adult population could be considered “Interested Bystanders” – 48.9% of people are paying attention to issues around them, but not actively voicing their opinions or taking action on those issues.
There is a misalignment between how Interested Bystanders think they should engage civically, and the ways they actually engage. Interested Bystanders are not taking the political actions they say they value. On the flip side, they underrate what they are actually doing now as civic actors. While Interested Bystanders associate the political aspects of civic life with conflict, shame, and negative experiences, they are attracted to the aspects that are about community involvement and social relationships.
While Interested Bystanders say that power comes from having a voice, they are disinclined to share their own opinions. Additionally, many Interested Bystanders are uninterested in hearing the opinions of other people.
While many Interested Bystanders believe they have the most power at the local level — either because they have greater ability to influence others in their immediate circles, or because they feel proportionally more important in a smaller population — most participants reported voting only at the national level, indicating a tension between their voting choices and their own sense of efficacy.
When they do take civic action, Interested Bystanders do things that meet the public interest most often when it aligns with their self interest. They tell us that they are most often motivated by one of three reasons: 1) they have personal or professional experiences to bring to bear, 2) they have personal interests at stake, or 3) they wanted the satisfaction of an emotionally meaningful experience.
We encourage you to take a look at the
full findings
, which include a more expansive set of insights, some Bystander “archetypes” that drove internal product ideation, and the results of a quantitative survey that pioneered the use of discrete choice modeling to conduct a “market segmentation” of the civic spectrum.
Implications of the Research
If you are a civic technologist, there is lots of work to be done! We invite you to consider three implications of our research, in whatever pursuits you have undertaken to make American civic life more inclusive.
First, you don't have to design for activists or the apathetic. You can design for Interested Bystanders and still reach a huge market of people and have a huge impact. Neither professionals nor amateurs, Interested Bystanders represent a “moveable” segment of the civic spectrum and we at Google are paying attention to them now because they matter - there are a lot of them.
Think about how to reset your strategies for engagement through the lens of somebody who is an Interested Bystander. Perhaps that means new features to help potential users connect their professional skills to community needs; perhaps that means doing better discovery to uncover what interests at stake they are willing to fight for; perhaps that means revisioning the role of emotional meaning and purpose in your interactions with them.
Second, we should design civic interventions that flow from everyday Americans’ real motivations, not our own aspirations for them. There is a desire within the civic tech community to find new ways to use technology to bring about broad-scale public engagement. This is a useful energy, and it should be harnessed to help Interested Bystanders activate their actual motivations (self-interest aligned with public interest).
We should not continue to make products, design policies, and promote programs that assume some kind of a priori willingness to spend precious time or resources engaged in activities that do not have a clear personal benefit for the intended participants. There are many ways of connecting public needs with personal gains, and we should be more creative about making those links.
Relatedly, we should be thinking about how we can help people do the kinds of things they value. Building from a sense of personal efficacy, how can we help people recognize and mine the power they are already exercising? This means an honest reckoning with the role of human self-interest.
Third, voting is important, but we can explore in greater depth the civic fulfillment that comes from community and social activities. Elections remain an incredibly important lever of power for the average person, especially at the local level.
Interested Bystanders who report voting say they do it out of a sense of civic duty and obligation, but not because they have a clear sense of what impact it has. Many would argue that voting no longer fits the way we live, and Interested Bystanders are not ignorant to this fact. If the election season is the only time we try to engage Interested Bystanders, then they will never feel engaged, precisely for these reasons.
However, the electoral process that seems so hollow to them now might fill with meaning if there were a more direct connection to the community and social activities that give them purpose and satisfaction the other 11 months of the year. What would it look like to make this kind of engagement more seamless, and provide direct links back to relevant political topics of public decision-making? This is exciting, because it is an area where technology can really make a difference.
We look forward to hearing what the implications of this research might be for the work that you do. We know that it is going to take a broad coalition of people to realize the kind of inclusive, just, and participatory society we desire and we are glad to be able to contribute knowledge and information to that endeavor.
UPDATE: Watch the full research presentation
here
.
Posted by Kate Krontiris, John Webb, Chris Chapman, and Charlotte Krontiris
Google Civic Innovation Team
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