Politics and Elections Blog
Trends, tools and news from the Google Politics & Elections team
Digital Horserace: One month out, Gingrich leads Google searches in all four early states
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
With the Iowa Caucuses less than one month away, we thought it was time to take another look at where the candidates are in terms of search queries across the four early primary states. With Herman Cain’s pivot from Republican frontrunner to campaign after-thought, Google’s Insights for Search tools is showing former Speaker Newt Gingrich stepping into the void and accelerating his momentum - just as formalized polling data indicates.
Here’s what we found:
Perry’s gaffe wasn’t the only outcome from November 9 debate. Gingrich also started to take off then.
Gingrich has recently taken the lead in searches; beginning in early November, the former Speaker has captured the attention of the country and has taken the search lead in the four early states.
Interest in Mitt Romney is on a strong upward trajectory since December 1, indicating that American searchers are narrowing their choices to Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich.
The spark that has driven Newt to the apparent front of the pack was - surprisingly - the November 9 debate. That night was best known for the (now) famous Rick Perry agency gaffe, but looking at how Americans searched,
it is clear
that Newt Gingrich was really the breakout star. The morning after the debate (November 10), Politico’s Maggie Haberman was
one of many journalists to point
to the building Newtmentum, writing, “If Cain’s numbers crater, Gingrich is the likeliest to benefit.” Looking at the data, it appears that the debate was pivotal in the campaign.
While sentiment and interest from voters across the country matters in this campaign, however, the near-term direction of the GOP race (and length of the primary process) is coming down to four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Public polling is showing a mixed bag: In Iowa, Gingrich has gone out to a new lead over rival Mitt Romney. However in
New Hampshire
, Romney continues holding a strong lead, though it has diminished significantly in recent weeks to Gingrich’s benefit. The third and fourth primary/caucus states this year are
South Carolina
and
Florida
, where Gingrich holds double-digit leads.
Google users across the same four states show that their interest in the race - and specifically in Gingrich - is up significantly since early November. All four states show a lead in searches for Gingrich over rival Romney. The interest in Gingrich is unprecedented.
Gingrich out to
search lead
in Iowa recently.
In what is expected to be one of Romney’s strongest states,
New Hampshire searchers
are looking for info on Newt Gingrich in big numbers recently. Romney still holds the volume lead for 2011.
Mirroring polling data, Gingrich has
big lead in terms of recent searches
in Florida.
South Carolina
searches show one of the largest current gaps
between Romney and Gingrich.
When looking in isolation, across the country, searches for Governor Mitt Romney
are on an upward trajectory
indicating that searchers are narrowing their interest to Romney and Gingrich.
Since December 1, searches are heading straight up. Connecting voters to information about issues and platforms is core to Google's effort around elections. It is clear that searchers are digging in as the elections get closer.
Will the search trends hold up? Will Newt Gingrich extend his search lead or will Mitt Romney close the gap? We’ll be watching along with most of the country starting in early January at the Iowa Caucuses.
Posted by: Jake Parrillo, Google Politics & Elections Team
Taking a peek at political trends ahead of our Florida debate
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
With our
Fox News GOP Presidential debate
less than 48 hours away, we thought it would be useful to once again look at Google search trends to see which candidates users are searching for.
We last
looked at search trends
and the GOP presidential race in early August just ahead of the Iowa Straw Poll. From former candidates (Tim Pawlenty) to new candidates (Texas Governor Rick Perry), the dynamics of this race have changed dramatically in the past 4 weeks. This time around, we found:
1. Since joining the field in August, Rick Perry has jumped out to be the most searched front-running candidate nationally.
2. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is still very much in the search race - contrary to media reports, our data shows this may not a two-person contest between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney!
3. Past debates generated interest among Google users on hot-button issues like HPV and Social Security.
4. Which state searches most for Ron Paul? Montana. (I didn’t predict that either!).
5. Search queries mirrored the results in the NY-9 Special Election recently.
Rick Perry takes the lead
[Rick Perry] has taken the lead in searches on Google. As more and more Americans hear, read, and talk about him, they’re looking to the web to discover more about the issues, his positions, and his background. Since joining the race, he’s
held the lead among the front-running candidates in terms of overall search numbers
.
Bachmann hanging tough
Back in early August,
we learned that Michele Bachmann was the most searched candidate both in Iowa and across the country. Heading into the Iowa Straw Poll, we showed her with a commanding lead in search volume and when all the votes were tallied, she won. A peek at our search trends shows that, despite some recent claims, the GOP race is not a two-person race. Rather,
it might still be a three-person race.
Although Bachmann has dropped behind searches for [Rick Perry] across the country, she is still more searched than [Mitt Romney].
Debates Drives Interest in Issues
Tomorrow at our debate with Fox News, we’ll be looking to user-submitted questions and search data to help frame the debate and prompts given to the candidates. The issues that Americans care most about will take center stage.
In a blog post yesterday
, we showed that the top-ranking categories are Government Spending & Debt and Jobs & Economy. These issues will dominate the evening. However, if past debates are any measure, there could be a breakout issue that isn’t on anyone’s radar ahead of the program. Resulting from recent debates in Florida and New Hampshire, two hot-button issues emerged and voters turned to the web to discover more on the topics. With the perceived-frontrunner Governor Perry being pressed on his positions, his opponents shed light on his stances. As a result, in the days after the debates, searches for [
Social Security Ponzi Scheme
] and searches [
HPV Rick Perry
] and [HPV] vaccines - saw major increases as voters turned to the web to discover more and get to the truth of the matters.
Montana is Ron Paul country
Some of you may be wondering where Congressman Ron Paul is in all of this search activity.
Having accurately predicted his second place finish in the Iowa Straw Poll
- based on search trends - we’ve noticed that over the summer, the state with the highest interest in Ron Paul is Montana. Surprised me, too! Other top states include early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida, so perhaps this data bodes well for some key primaries.
NY-9 Results
Finally, we thought it would be useful to walk through some of the ways that our search data has served as a good proxy for offline behavior - and in this case - elections. We’ve already showed you above how search data in Iowa showed a Bachmann - Paul finish in the Iowa Straw Poll in August, but more recently we saw parallels in search data and election results in the special election for 9th Congressional District which pitted Republican [Bob Turner] against Democrat [David Weprin].
The search trends show Turner pulling away to a lead
in the days leading up to election day. He went on to win.
Like most of you, all of us on the Google Politics and Elections team will continue to be keeping a close eye on the race and tomorrow night’s debate promises to be a great moment in the campaign. Stay tuned here for more search trends as the race heats up.
Posted by: Jake Parrillo, Politics and Elections Project Communications Team
Searching the 2011 Iowa Straw Poll
Thursday, August 11, 2011
In just two days, Iowa voters will cast the first votes in the 2012 campaign at their traditional straw poll. The
Iowa Straw Poll
– so named because the results are non-binding and thus “as sturdy as straw” - is the first major event of the campaign. The nation’s political focus turns to Iowa starting tonight as eight of the announced candidates take the stage for the Fox News Ames Debate.
Iowans are rightfully proud of the role they play in presidential politics and take their responsibility seriously. They research the candidates. They investigate the issues. They’re engaged in the political process. That’s why the state makes for an interesting window to view the candidacies and issues through Google’s own data. As the country looks to Iowa, we thought it would be useful to examine what people in that state and across the country are searching for related to the 2012 Republican nomination.
Here’s what we found:
Michele Bachmann is the most searched
announced
candidate in Iowa right now, and nationally by a large margin.
Add in the names Sarah Palin and Rick Perry, and Bachmann still has the edge in Iowa.
But nationally, Perry becomes the current leader of search.
The most searched for issue in Iowa and across the country is jobs - by large margin.
And finally, the State of Iowa leads by a HUGE margin the number of searches for [
butter cow
]
Heading into the weekend,
[Michelle Bachmann] is the most searched-for announced candidate in Iowa.
She’s taken off and now far surpasses any other declared candidate, especially those that are attending the Straw Poll. If you look at the pack together, Congressman [Ron Paul] trails Bachmann in the number two spot, as do searches for Governor [Tim Pawlenty], Senator [Rick Santorum] and businessman [Herman Cain].
Nationally, the same trend stands up, even when those candidates who are skipping the Straw Poll are added to the mix. Across the country,
more people are searching
for [Michelle Bachmann] that are searching for Congressman [Ron Paul], Governor [Mitt Romney], Speaker [Newt Gingrich] and Ambassador [Jon Huntsman].
However, the search landscape changes dramatically when we include two much-discussed potential candidates: [Rick Perry] and [Sarah Palin]. In Iowa, where she has focused her campaign, [Michelle Bachmann]
retains her search lead
, but across the country she drops to the number two spot behind the currently surging [Rick Perry]. Without even entering the race, Governor Perry finds himself leading in search today.
Perry has some strong search momentum
as more voters across the country turn to Google to find out more information about his potential candidacy.
So that covers the candidates, what about the issues? In Iowa, the candidates are talking about health care reform, the national debt and ethanol among others. But, the top concern - and
most searched issue in Iowa
and
across the country
- this year is [jobs] - by a HUGE margin.
Republican Party officials are expecting more than
10,000 voters
to cast their vote on Saturday in Ames. But, that’s not the only big event taking place over the weekend.
Celebrating more than 150 years
, the Iowa State Fair includes highlights such as the the “fry everything” food booths to the famous butter cow. Don’t know what a butter cow is?
It is a life-size bovine crafted entirely of butter
and it is a huge part of the tradition at the Iowa State Fair. Iowa leads the country - by a huge margin -
in the number of searches
for [butter cow].
Here at Google, we are serious about our role in helping voters find information that is useful in the political process, and that’s why
we’re heading to Ames to participate in the Straw Poll with our Soapbox
. We’ll also be here from now until the General Election to help bring you a front-row seat to the race through a regular look at what’s happening online.
Posted by Ginny Hunt, Google Politics
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