With the Iowa Caucuses less than one month away, we thought it was time to take another look at where the candidates are in terms of search queries across the four early primary states. With Herman Cain’s pivot from Republican frontrunner to campaign after-thought, Google’s Insights for Search tools is showing former Speaker Newt Gingrich stepping into the void and accelerating his momentum - just as formalized polling data indicates.
Perry’s gaffe wasn’t the only outcome from November 9 debate. Gingrich also started to take off then.
Gingrich has recently taken the lead in searches; beginning in early November, the former Speaker has captured the attention of the country and has taken the search lead in the four early states.
Interest in Mitt Romney is on a strong upward trajectory since December 1, indicating that American searchers are narrowing their choices to Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich.
The spark that has driven Newt to the apparent front of the pack was - surprisingly - the November 9 debate. That night was best known for the (now) famous Rick Perry agency gaffe, but looking at how Americans searched, it is clear that Newt Gingrich was really the breakout star. The morning after the debate (November 10), Politico’s Maggie Haberman was one of many journalists to point to the building Newtmentum, writing, “If Cain’s numbers crater, Gingrich is the likeliest to benefit.” Looking at the data, it appears that the debate was pivotal in the campaign. New Hampshire , Romney continues holding a strong lead, though it has diminished significantly in recent weeks to Gingrich’s benefit. The third and fourth primary/caucus states this year are South Carolina and Florida , where Gingrich holds double-digit leads. Gingrich out to search lead in Iowa recently. In what is expected to be one of Romney’s strongest states, New Hampshire searchers are looking for info on Newt Gingrich in big numbers recently. Romney still holds the volume lead for 2011. Mirroring polling data, Gingrich has big lead in terms of recent searches in Florida. South Carolina searches show one of the largest current gaps between Romney and Gingrich. When looking in isolation, across the country, searches for Governor Mitt Romney are on an upward trajectory indicating that searchers are narrowing their interest to Romney and Gingrich. Since December 1, searches are heading straight up. Connecting voters to information about issues and platforms is core to Google's effort around elections. It is clear that searchers are digging in as the elections get closer. Posted by: Jake Parrillo, Google Politics & Elections Team
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