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Digital Horserace: One month out, Gingrich leads Google searches in all four early states
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
With the Iowa Caucuses less than one month away, we thought it was time to take another look at where the candidates are in terms of search queries across the four early primary states. With Herman Cain’s pivot from Republican frontrunner to campaign after-thought, Google’s Insights for Search tools is showing former Speaker Newt Gingrich stepping into the void and accelerating his momentum - just as formalized polling data indicates.
Here’s what we found:
Perry’s gaffe wasn’t the only outcome from November 9 debate. Gingrich also started to take off then.
Gingrich has recently taken the lead in searches; beginning in early November, the former Speaker has captured the attention of the country and has taken the search lead in the four early states.
Interest in Mitt Romney is on a strong upward trajectory since December 1, indicating that American searchers are narrowing their choices to Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich.
The spark that has driven Newt to the apparent front of the pack was - surprisingly - the November 9 debate. That night was best known for the (now) famous Rick Perry agency gaffe, but looking at how Americans searched,
it is clear
that Newt Gingrich was really the breakout star. The morning after the debate (November 10), Politico’s Maggie Haberman was
one of many journalists to point
to the building Newtmentum, writing, “If Cain’s numbers crater, Gingrich is the likeliest to benefit.” Looking at the data, it appears that the debate was pivotal in the campaign.
While sentiment and interest from voters across the country matters in this campaign, however, the near-term direction of the GOP race (and length of the primary process) is coming down to four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Public polling is showing a mixed bag: In Iowa, Gingrich has gone out to a new lead over rival Mitt Romney. However in
New Hampshire
, Romney continues holding a strong lead, though it has diminished significantly in recent weeks to Gingrich’s benefit. The third and fourth primary/caucus states this year are
South Carolina
and
Florida
, where Gingrich holds double-digit leads.
Google users across the same four states show that their interest in the race - and specifically in Gingrich - is up significantly since early November. All four states show a lead in searches for Gingrich over rival Romney. The interest in Gingrich is unprecedented.
Gingrich out to
search lead
in Iowa recently.
In what is expected to be one of Romney’s strongest states,
New Hampshire searchers
are looking for info on Newt Gingrich in big numbers recently. Romney still holds the volume lead for 2011.
Mirroring polling data, Gingrich has
big lead in terms of recent searches
in Florida.
South Carolina
searches show one of the largest current gaps
between Romney and Gingrich.
When looking in isolation, across the country, searches for Governor Mitt Romney
are on an upward trajectory
indicating that searchers are narrowing their interest to Romney and Gingrich.
Since December 1, searches are heading straight up. Connecting voters to information about issues and platforms is core to Google's effort around elections. It is clear that searchers are digging in as the elections get closer.
Will the search trends hold up? Will Newt Gingrich extend his search lead or will Mitt Romney close the gap? We’ll be watching along with most of the country starting in early January at the Iowa Caucuses.
Posted by: Jake Parrillo, Google Politics & Elections Team
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